• Black Friday Weekend (25 – 28 Nov) spend set to hit £8.71bn, a rise of 0.8% YoY
  • £22.62bn expected to be spent over the two week Black Friday period (22 Nov – 5 Dec), up 2.1% YoY
  • Sales on Black Friday itself will fall by 5.8% to £3.01bn, as consumers watch the World Cup instead of spending
  • Two-fifths of consumers expect to spend more this year than last year over the Black Friday Weekend (41%)

This Black Friday Weekend (25th – 28th November), retail sales are set to hit £8.71bn as consumers make use of bumper discounts to shop early for Christmas.

The VoucherCodes.co.uk Shopping for Christmas 2022: Black Friday Weekend report forecasts a 0.8% YoY increase in retail spend over Black Friday Weekend, from £8.64bn in 2021. With several retailers set to extend their Black Friday promotions to a two week period, the report forecasts shoppers will spend a total of £22.62bn across Black Friday Fortnight (22nd November – 5th December), a 2.1% (£463m) increase on the same period in 2021.

UK Black Friday Weekend sales. 2019 – 2021 actuals, 2022 forecast.

Sales (£bn)Growth (YoY %)
2019202020212022 (Forecast)202020212022 (Forecast)
Black Friday2.532.783.203.0110.114.9-5.8
Saturday/ Sunday3.002.312.292.53-23.2-0.710.4
Cyber Monday3.042.863.153.17-5.810.20.3
Total8.577.958.648.71-7.28.70.8

 

The report credits this rise in spend to consumers taking advantage of the deals and discounts on offer over the Black Friday period to stock up on Christmas essentials. Consumers are also set to begin Christmas shopping earlier to spread the cost of Christmas, spending more than in previous years during the Black Friday period.

Despite a boost over Black Friday weekend, experts forecast a 3% dip in consumer spend this Christmas overall due the cost-of-living crisis, which has been further compounded this week as a result of the Autumn Statement squeezing household budgets further still.

In spite of the strain on many consumers’ budgets, two-fifths of consumers still say they are likely to make a purchase over the Black Friday Weekend (39%), and 16% say they are very likely to purchase. A further two-fifths say they are likely to spend more this year than last year (41%).

Retailers of clothing and footwear are the most likely to see a Black Friday sales boost, as this category is poised to be the most popular, with half of Black Friday shoppers set to make a purchase (47%). Big ticket items such as electricals are also set to be popular (44%), as will popular gifting categories such as toys (37%), health and beauty (32%), and games, music and film (24%).

The World Cup and Black Friday

Looking at each day of the Black Friday Weekend individually, Cyber Monday is set to be the most lucrative day for retailers, generating £3.17bn, a rise of 0.3% year-on-year (YoY). However, sales on Black Friday itself are expected to fall by -5.8% to £3.01bn from £3.20bn last year.

With Black Friday taking place on the same day as England’s match against the USA in the FIFA World Cup, it’s expected that many consumers will be tuning into the match from 7pm instead of shopping. As a result, this spend is set to shift to the Saturday and Sunday with expected sales of £2.53bn – a rise of 10.4% YoY.

Online v Offline this Black Friday Weekend 

This year’s Black Friday Weekend is the first year since 2019 without any Covid restrictions or fears over rising Covid cases. As a result, many consumers will return to bricks-and-mortar stores to shop in-person this Black Friday Weekend. Due to this shift, offline sales are forecast to rise by a huge 21.1% YoY from £3.22bn in 2021 to £3.9bn in 2022. However, with the rise in offline spend comes a decline in online spend from £5.42bn to £4.8bn – a drop of 11.2%.

Maureen McDonagh, SVP International and Managing Director atVoucherCodes.co.uk, comments: “With the cost-of-living crisis and further financial worry caused by the impact of the Autumn Statement, Christmas sales are expected to fall by 3% on last year1. As a result, Black Friday is an important opportunity for retailers to provide their customers with the much-needed value during an incredibly difficult period, especially on must have items for food & drink and gifts for loved ones.

“Black Friday is incredibly busy for discounting so retailers need to consider how their offers stand out and are relevant to maximise sales. With less disposable income available, additional customer initiatives such as rewards, loyalty and flexible delivery options can be the deciding factor between a customer choosing between two competitor brands.”

1 This statistic comes from the first of VoucherCodes’ Shopping for Christmas Reports, found here: https://www.vouchercodes.co.uk/savings-guides/guides-reports/shopping-for-christmas-report-2022-the-christmas-period

Image courtesy of Unsplash.

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